Empirical analysis of COVID-19 confirmed cases, hospitalizations, vaccination, and international travel across Belgian provinces in 2021

Abstract

In the absence of definitive treatments or vaccines, the primary strategy to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions. By the end of 2020, COVID-19 vaccines had been developed and initiated for preventive purposes. To better understand the association between various mitigation measures and their impact on the pandemic, we analyzed the effect of vaccination coverage, international travel, traveler positivity rates, and the stringency of public health measures on the incidence of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations at the provincial level in Belgium. We identified several important interactions among the covariates that influence the incidence of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Specifically, the best-fitting model (AIC = 965.658) revealed significant interactions between lagged vaccination coverage and the stringency index, as well as between incoming travel rates and positivity rates. Additionally, when modeling COVID-19 hospitalizations, a significant interaction was observed between the incoming travel rate and the stringency index. Model performance improved substantially when incorporating the incidence of confirmed cases as a covariate (AIC = 1061.516 vs. AIC = 432.708), while highlighting key interactions between confirmed cases and traveler positivity rates, as well as between lagged vaccination coverage and incoming travel rates. These findings underscore the intricate interplay between public health interventions, population immunity, and mobility patterns in shaping the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.