Effects of marine heat waves and cold spells on a polar shallow water ecosystem

Abstract

Abstract Global warming affects the Earth system in complex ways, often preventing a functional understanding of the underlying processes. Disentangling these processes between abiotic drivers and single species or entire communities is, however, essential for an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem. Using a high-resolution time series on heat waves and cold spells in an Arctic fjord system, we demonstrate that AI-supported digital data processing, which is based on state-of-the-art observatory technology, has the potential to provide new insights into the effects of abiotic factors on biotic communities, which would not be possible with traditional expedition-based sampling methods. Furthermore, our study shows that short-term, event-driven anomalies in key ocean variables not only alter a system’s hydrography but also have the potential to impact the entire community across the trophic chain from benthos and zooplankton to fish. We found a significant positive correlation between hydrographic temperature anomalies and biota abundance, with high biota abundances linked to ‘Atlantic’ phases with frequent heat waves and low biota abundances correlated with ‘Arctic’ phases dominated by cold spells. The study also revealed that hydrographic anomalies can not only influence overall biota abundance in an area but also trigger complex shifts in species composition. This leads to fluctuating interannual abundance peaks in specific biotic groups, such as jellyfish, fish, or chaetognaths, depending on trigger factors that are not yet fully understood.