Divergent population trajectories despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore
Abstract
Climate change is shifting when animals breed [C. Parmesan, G. Yohe, Nature 421 , 37–42 (2003) and S. J. Thackeray et al. , Nature 535 , 241–245 (2016)], but it is not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind [L. D. Bailey et al. , Nat. Commun. 13 , 2112 (2022) and J. M. Samplonius et al. , Glob. Change Biol. 24 , 3780–3790 (2018)]. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature [L. D. Bailey et al. , Nat. Commun. 13 , 2112 (2022)] or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity—or in their ability to act on that sensitivity—we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings suggest that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results are consistent with a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (81)
Conor C. Taff
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University
J. Ryan Shipley
Department of Fish Ecology and Evolution, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Sciences and Technology
Daniel R. Ardia
Department of Biology, Franklin & Marshall College
David Aborn
Department of Biology, Geology, and Environmental Science, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Lauren Albert
Department of Biology, Indiana University
Marc Bélisle
Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke
Amos Belmaker
Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University
Lisha L. Berzins
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan
Tricia Blake
Alaska Songbird Institute
Frances Bonier
Department of Biology, Queen’s University
Hannah C. Brewer
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut
Michael W. Butler
Department of Biology, Lafayette College
Kyle Cameron
Long Point Bird Observatory, Birds Canada
Samuel B. Case
Department of Biology, University of Washington
David Chang van Oordt
Robert G. Clark
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Wildlife Research Division
Ethan D. Clotfelter
Department of Biology, Amherst College
Amelia R. Cox
Cumulative Impact Monitoring Program, Government of Northwest Territories
Russell D. Dawson
Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Northern British Columbia
Elizabeth P. Derryberry
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Collaborative for Animal Behavior, University of Tennessee
Ana M. Diaz Bohorquez
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Wildlife Research Division
Peter O. Dunn
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee
Valentina Ferretti
Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Anna M. Forsman
Department of Biology, Colby College
Matthew Fuirst
Long Point Bird Observatory, Birds Canada
Dany Garant
Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke
Daniel R. Garrett
Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke
Jessica Gutiérrez
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut
Julie C. Hagelin
Threatened, Endangered and Diversity Program, Alaska Department of Fish and Game
Braelei M. Hardt
National Wildlife Federation
Mercy E. Harris
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Wildlife Research Division
Kyle Horton
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University
Carolyne Houle
Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke
Jennifer L. Houtz
Department of Biology, Allegheny College
Patricia L. Jones
Biology Department, Bowdoin College
Kimberley C. Jordan
Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming
Amanda S. Kindel
Museum of Wildlife and Fish Biology, University of California–Davis
Robert Klaver
Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University
Sarah A. Knutie
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut
Katherine S. Lauck
Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California–Davis
Michael P. Lombardo
Department of Biology, Grand Valley State University
Stephen C. Lougheed
Department of Biology, Queen’s University
Ashley C. Love
Department of Biology, Miami University
Stuart A. Mackenzie
Long Point Bird Observatory, Birds Canada
John P. McCarty
Department of Biology, University of Nebraska Omaha
Ann E. McKellar
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Wildlife Research Division
Nicole Mejia
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University
Christy A. Morrissey
Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan
Mia L. Nahom
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission
D. Ryan Norris
Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph
Lillian M. Para
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee
Fanie Pelletier
Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke
Cody K. Porter
Biology Department, Hope College
Wallace B. Rendell
School of Applied Sciences Skills and Technology, Loyalist College
Eric A. Riddell
Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
James W. Rivers
Department of Forest Engineering, Resources, and Management, Oregon State University
Raleigh J. Robertson
Department of Biology, Queen’s University
Alexandra Rose
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado
Kimberly A. Rosvall
Department of Biology, Indiana University
Thomas A. Ryan
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University
Ryan P. Shannon
Department of Biology, Miami University
Dave Shutler
Department of Biology, Acadia University
Victoria F. Simons
Itasca Biological Station and Laboratories, University of Minnesota
Mark Stanback
Department of Biology, Davidson College
Corey E. Tarwater
Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming
Patrick A. Thorpe
Department of Biology, Grand Valley State University
Morgan W. Tingley
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California
Christine L. Tischer
Sea and Sage Audubon
Benjamin A. Tonelli
Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University
Melanie L. Truan
Museum of Wildlife and Fish Biology, University of California–Davis
Cornelia W. Twining
Department of Fish Ecology and Evolution, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Sciences and Technology
Jennifer J. Uehling
Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University
Carol Vleck
Department of Biology, West Chester University
David Vleck
Department of Biology, West Chester University
Michael L. Watson
The Holden Arboretum
Nathaniel T. Wheelwright
Biology Department, Bowdoin College
Linda A. Whittingham
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee
David W. Winkler
SABER Consulting
Casey Youngflesh
Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University
Cedric Zimmer
Laboratoire d’Ethologie Expérimentale et Comparée, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord
Maren N. Vitousek
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University