Disproportionate exposure to extreme floods in historically redlined U.S. communities

Abstract

Abstract Extreme floods and historical public policies both leave lasting impacts. We analyzed flood exposure across the neighborhoods of 202 US cities historically assessed for lending risk by the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation on a scale from ‘best (A) to ‘hazardous’ (D). Using high-resolution flood modeling and dasymetric population mapping, we found that D-graded neighborhoods bear a disproportionate flood burden in roughly three-quarters of cities. This inequality follows a systematic gradient: A- and B-graded neighborhoods are underrepresented in the flooded population, C-graded neighborhoods are proportionately represented, and D-graded neighborhoods are overrepresented. A greater fraction of D-graded residents are exposed to the 100-yr flood (6.4%) than A-graded residents to the 1000-yr flood (5.9%) with the gap widening at higher-magnitude floods. Flood disparities are most pronounced in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, aligning with the historical concentration of industrial labor and redlined neighborhoods along waterways. However, we find that proximity to waterways alone does not explain the observed inequality: flood disparities persist even among neighborhoods far from major rivers and coasts, implicating infrastructure deficits as a compounding factor. Neighborhoods marked as ‘hazardous’ nearly a century ago remain disproportionately vulnerable today, underscoring the need for equitable urban planning.