Disparate estimates of intrinsic productivity for Antarctic krill across small spatial scales under a rapidly changing ocean

Abstract

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba ) productivity along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) requires the application of robust analytical approaches. Both design-based and model-based methodologies have been employed to address this challenge. The Spawning Potential Ratio (SPR) is a indicator that provides valuable insights about population productivity. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of the SPR for krill by modeling Length-Based Spawning Potential Ratio (LBSPR) with 20 years of fishery-dependent length composition data. Results showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity among five fishing strata in the WAP, where SPR in Gerlache Strait stratum was consistently lower than the 20% SPR reference point, compared with Elephant, Bransfield Strait, Southwest and Joinville Island strata. Moreover, we demonstrate the sensitivity of LBSPR to changes in growth parameters, such as k and L inf , which are influenced by environmental variables like chlorophyll. Our findings underscore the value of incorporating environmental variability into stock assessment models, such as those based on SPR, to accurately assess krill stock conditions. Given the apparent spatial heterogeneity in intrinsic productivity identified through our SPR estimates, we propose using this approach to establish a management procedure based on a control rule for each stratum. This method adjusts the allocation of catch limits in line with the new management strategy of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). By integrating knowledge about spatial krill dynamics and its intrinsic productivity, advice can be recommended to promote the sustainable management of krill populations in Subarea 48.1.