Developmental trajectory of voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescent mice using finite mixture modeling and Bayesian posterior probability analysis

Abstract

Background Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) pose a significant public health challenge, with adolescence representing a critical period of vulnerability for the initiation of alcohol consumption. Variability in drinking behaviors among individuals complicates efforts to characterize developmental trajectories, limiting our understanding of underlying biological mechanisms. Objective This study aimed to identify and characterize distinct patterns of voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescent mice, using advanced statistical methods to model behavioral heterogeneity. Methods Thirty-five male CD-1 outbred mice were monitored for alcohol consumption using a two-bottle free-choice paradigm from early adolescence to young adulthood (4–11 weeks of age). Finite mixture modeling, using the method implemented in the software SAS Proc Traj, was applied to categorize individual drinking behaviors into trajectory groups based on Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Posterior Probabilities (BPP). Results Three distinct drinking trajectory groups were identified: non-drinkers, late drinkers, and early drinkers. Non-drinkers exhibited consistently low alcohol consumption throughout the study, late drinkers showed a significant increase in alcohol intake during adolescence-to-adulthood transition, and early drinkers maintained high levels of consumption from the start. Notably, the late and early drinkers converged on similarly high consumption levels by the end of the observation period. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of drinking behaviors during adolescence and its developmental implications. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of finite mixture modeling in characterizing developmental trajectories of voluntary alcohol consumption in adolescent mice. The identification of distinct behavioral trajectory patterns provides a foundation for future investigations into the genetic, molecular, and neural mechanisms underpinning susceptibility to alcohol use disorders.