Development and validation of the SPEAR scoring model and predicting overall survival in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with TACE, molecular targeted therapies, and immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Abstract

533 Background: To develop and validate a predictive model to identify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients likely to benefit from combined treatment of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), molecular targeted therapies (MTTs), and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Methods: Data from 500 patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE, MTTs, and ICIs (2019-2023) were analyzed. Patients were divided into a training set (241 from Nanfang Hospital) and a validation set (259 from various hospitals). Key prognostic variables were identified using random forest survival analysis, and the top five were used to construct a Cox proportional hazards model. Model performance was assessed using time-dependent AUC values, calibration curves, clinical decision curves (DCA), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indices. Risk scores and optimal cut-off values for risk stratification were determined and validated. Results: Five key survival variables were identified: serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), red cell distribution width coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and extrahepatic metastasis (EHM). The Cox model had a C-index of 0.694 in the training and 0.691 in the validation set. The training set's 1-year, 2-year, 2.5-year, and 3-year AUC values were 0.77, 0.73, 0.73, and 0.72, respectively, and 0.74, 0.74, 0.76, and 0.66 in the validation set. The ARAPE model demonstrated a more significant net benefit than existing models. Median overall survival (mOS) was 33.9 months for low-risk, 20.4 months for intermediate-risk, and 14.2 months for high-risk groups in the training set; in the validation set, mOS was 30.8, 18.7, and 10.5 months, respectively. Conclusions: The SPEAR model (Serum AFP, PLR, EHM, AST, and RDW-CV) model effectively stratifies risk for HCC patients receiving TACE combined with MTTs and ICIs, aiding in personalized treatment decisions.