Determinants of household food security during seasonal flooding in Aweil West County, South Sudan

Abstract

Abstract Seasonal flooding poses a major threat to household food security in vulnerable rural communities in South Sudan. Despite increasing flood impacts, empirical evidence on flood-related food insecurity and household resilience remains limited. This study assessed household food security status, determinants, and coping strategies among flood-affected households in Aweil West County, South Sudan. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 218 households in flood-prone communities in Aweil West County. Household food security was assessed using Food Insecurity Experience Scale indicators, and severity levels were estimated using the Rasch model. Households were classified as food secure or food insecure based on severity scores. Adjusted logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of household food security, while coping strategies were assessed using chi-square tests. The Rasch model showed that 74.3% of households were food insecure. Adjusted logistic regression identified several significant predictors of household food insecurity during seasonal flooding. Dinka households had higher odds of food insecurity than Luo households (AOR = 3.00; 95% CI: 1.10–8.20). Households with 7–9 members (AOR = 2.30; 95% CI: 1.10–4.80), ≥ 10 members (AOR = 3.10; 95% CI: 1.40–6.90), ≥ 4 adults (AOR = 4.50; 95% CI: 1.20–16.90), and ≥ 6 children (AOR = 2.30; 95% CI: 1.10–4.90) were significantly more likely to experience food insecurity. Living ≥ 6 km from the nearest market (AOR = 2.60; 95% CI: 1.20–5.80), lack of household savings (AOR = 3.80; 95% CI: 1.60–4.70), and absence of social network, government, or NGO support were also associated with increased odds of being food insecure. Conversely, households earning 100,001–150,000 SSP (AOR = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.31–1.09) and ≥ 150,001 SSP (AOR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.14–0.86) were significantly less likely to experience food insecurity than those earning ≤ 50,000 SSP. Key coping strategies included food rationing, reducing meal frequency, reliance on social networks, emergency assistance, and livelihood-support activities. Flooding significantly undermined household food security in Aweil West County. Strengthening livelihood diversification, savings mechanisms, access to credit, and social protection programmes, including food assistance and cash-for-work initiatives, is essential for improving household resilience to recurrent flood shocks.