Demographic responses of North Atlantic seabirds to seasonal ocean warming
Abstract
Climate-driven ocean warming is profoundly reshaping marine ecosystems, with cascading effects on biodiversity and trophic interactions. For migratory marine predators such as seabirds, demographic responses to warming depend on when and where populations are exposed across the annual cycle. Therefore, integrating demographic monitoring and tracking data, across broad geographic and temporal scales, is essential, given the spatial and seasonal variability in ocean warming. Here, we integrated long-term demographic data, seasonal distributions, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 26 populations of five seabird species breeding in the North–East Atlantic to assess the effects of SSTs on reproduction, survival, and population growth trajectories. Demographic responses varied widely among populations and seasons, but negative effects were most consistently associated with warming during the autumn period postbreeding, particularly in the Barents and East Greenland Seas. Winter warming also corresponded to reduced survival, while breeding-season SSTs showed fewer significant effects on reproductive rates. Populations with dual responses to warming in both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons had the lowest projected population growth rates under future SSTs given a high emissions scenario. These results demonstrate that population vulnerability reflects the interaction between seabirds’ year-round distributions and regional ocean warming. This underlines the need to integrate year-round tracking and long-term monitoring to inform conservation strategies and marine spatial planning to ensure climate-resilient marine ecosystems.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (24)
Kate Layton-Matthews
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Charlotte E. Regan
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate
Manuel Ballesteros
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM Centre
Kevin Hodges
Department of Meteorology National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
Sebastien Descamps
Norwegian Polar Institute, High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Tycho Anker-Nilssen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Sigurd Benjaminsen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM Centre
Francis Daunt
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate
Robert T. Barrett
Department of Natural Science, Tromsø University Museum
Lila Buckingham
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Vegard Sandøy Bråthen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Nina Dehnhard
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Kjell Einar Erikstad
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM Centre
Annette L. Fayet
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Hálfdán H. Helgason
East Iceland Nature Research Centre
Malin Kjellstadli Johansen
Norwegian Polar Institute, High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Svein-Håkon Lorentsen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Erlend Lorentzen
Norwegian Polar Institute, High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Børge Moe
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Geir Helge Systad
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Hallvard Strøm
Norwegian Polar Institute, High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
Kate R. Searle
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate
Tone K. Reiertsen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM Centre