Data-driven scenario analysis supports the revival of historic silvoarable systems for carbon smart rural landscapes

Abstract

Abstract Agroforestry has long been recognised as a nature-based solution for climate mitigation, yet its adoption in Europe has drastically declined due to the socio-economic transformations and land use intensification since the onset of the Great Acceleration (ca. mid-twentieth century). This study reconstructs the historical role of agroforestry in Northern Italy by drawing on century-long land use records (1929–2024) and historical sources, which were crucial for identifying and modelling the carbon stock of traditional silvoarable systems. Through the integration of Monte Carlo simulations and scenario-based modelling, we estimate that historic silvoarable systems stored an average of 75.4 t C ha−1, with a potential range of 50.4–101.6 t C ha−1. The widespread abandonment of agroforestry practices led to a 97% reduction in their extent, accompanied by a corresponding expansion of monocultures. Future management scenarios suggest that restoring silvoarable systems could enhance regional carbon sequestration by up to 12%, a gain comparable to afforestation strategies requiring the conversion of 25% of existing farmland. Our findings underscore the global value of traditional ecological knowledge and historical land use strategies in informing carbon-smart agricultural transitions and shaping policies for resilient, multifunctional landscapes.