ctDNA versus PET/CT at end of treatment in large B-cell lymphoma: A diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis.

Abstract

e19090 Background: PET/CT remains crucial for end-of-treatment (EOT) evaluation in large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), but low specificity results in unnecessary biopsies and patient discomfort. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based minimum residual illness (MRD) may aid in the identification of actual residual sickness. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy using MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and Scopus. Eligible studies compared EOT ctDNA-MRD to PET/CT with verified recurrence or long-term remission. The outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). The study's quality was rated using the QUADAS-2 scale. A bivariate random-effects model combined sensitivity and specificity, yielding hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves. Results: Nine studies with a total of 932 participants were included. ctDNA-MRD showed higher specificity (92%, 95% CI 88-95%) and PPV (81%, 95% CI 73-88%) than PET/CT (specificity 68%, 95% CI 60-75%; PPV 46%, 95% CI 38-55%), while maintaining similar sensitivity. The negative predictive value for ctDNA was higher (91%, 95% CI 86-95%) than for PET (79%, 95% CI 72-85%). Combined PET+ctDNA techniques had the highest diagnostic odds ratio and fewer false positives. The results were similar across Deauville criteria and testing systems. Conclusions: ctDNA-MRD has higher specificity and predictive value than PET/CT at EOT in LBCL and significantly improves risk categorization whether used alone or in conjunction with imaging. Clinical Takeaway: Incorporating ctDNA-MRD into EOT assessment can reduce unnecessary biopsies and enable more accurate, confidence-based post-treatment decision-making.