Cost-effectiveness analysis of artificial intelligence-assisted risk stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules

Abstract

Background Artificial intelligence-based radiomic approaches have been shown to accurately evaluate indeterminate pulmonary nodules. With the expansion of lung cancer screening and utilization of computed tomography imaging, indeterminate pulmonary nodules requiring diagnostic evaluation are increasingly common. Accurate non-invasive characterization may reduce time to cancer diagnosis and decrease invasive procedures for benign disease, but the cost-effectiveness of AI-based methods has not been quantified. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted clinician evaluation compared to clinician evaluation alone for the cancer risk stratification of patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules. Methods We constructed a decision model assuming guideline-based care from a payer perspective with a lifetime horizon. The base case is a 1.1 cm incidentally discovered IPN in a 60-year-old operative candidate in a clinical population with a 65% malignancy prevalence. Cost per life-year gained (LYG) was the primary outcome. We conducted deterministic sensitivity analyses on all parameters and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Given clinical variability of malignancy prevalence, we assessed the malignancy prevalence threshold at which utilization of AI would be cost-effective. Results AI-supported clinician risk stratification resulted in an increase of 0.03 life years compared to clinician alone. With a 65% malignancy prevalence, AI was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,485/LYG. When the malignancy prevalence was < 5%, the ICER for AI support exceeded a standard willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/LYG. Conclusions In clinical settings with a pre-test probability of malignancy exceeding 5%, AI-supported IPN risk stratification is cost-effective compared to clinician assessment alone.