Confronting the uncertainty: Vulnerability to climate change among smallholder farmers in the Sidaama region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change varies due to socio-economic and biophysical factors, requiring a context-specific assessment. This study examines livelihood vulnerability in the face of climate change in the Sidaama Region, Ethiopia. A mixed-methods approach with a descriptive and explanatory sequential design was employed. Data from 391 systematically sampled households were analyzed using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework (LVI_IPCC), alongside Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn’s tests. Results of LVI analysis indicate that the Lowland agroecological zone (AEZ) is the most vulnerable (0.466), followed by the Highland (0.412), while the Midland is least vulnerable (0.376). The Highland AEZ showed greater sensitivity to climate change, whereas the Lowland had the weakest adaptive capacity. The Kruskal-Wallis H test confirmed significant differences in vulnerability across AEZs (H = 49.083, p < 0.001), with Dunn’s test revealing that the Lowland AEZ is significantly more vulnerable than both the Highland and Midland. LVI_IPCC results similarly ranked the Lowland as the most vulnerable (-0.0041), followed by the Midland (-0.072), with the Highland being the least vulnerable (-0.096). Boxplot analysis further confirmed that the lowland had the highest median LVI_IPCC, indicating greater livelihood vulnerability, while the Highland and Midland had lower median values. To reduce vulnerability, targeted interventions such as climate-smart agriculture, diversified income sources, improved microfinance access, and tailored climate adaptation strategies are needed. Local, regional, and national governments should prioritize disaster prevention and mitigation in the Lowland while leveraging the Midland’s higher adaptability for piloting innovative adaptation strategies.