Compounded effects on wetland greenhouse gas fluxes from climate change and water management along a saline to freshwater gradient

C Cheryl L. Doughty (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) Q Qing Ying (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) E Eric Ward (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) E Erin Delaria (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) G Glenn M. Wolfe (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) S Sparkle L. Malone (Yale School of the Environment, Yale University) D David E. Reed (Yale School of the Environment, Yale University) T Tiffany Troxler (Institute of Environment, Florida International University) J John S. Kominoski (Institute of Environment, Florida International University) E Edward Castañeda-Moya (Institute of Environment, Florida International University) W W. Barclay Shoemaker (United States Geological Survey Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center) D David Yannick (Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama) G Gregory Starr (Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama) S Steven F. Oberbauer (Institute of Environment, Florida International University) A Abigail Barenblitt (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland) A Anthony Campbell (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) S Sean Charles (Integrated Coastal Program, East Carolina University) L Lola Fatoyinbo (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) J Jonathan Gewirtzman T Thomas Hanisco (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) R Reem Hannun (Atmospheric Science Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center) S Stephan Kawa (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) D David Lagomasino (Integrated Coastal Program, East Carolina University) L Leslie Lait (Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) A Ayia Lindquist (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) P Paul Newman (Earth Sciences Division, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center) P Peter Raymond (Yale School of the Environment, Yale University) J Judith Rosentreter (Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University) K Kenneth Thornhill (National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center) D Derrick Vaughn (Yale School of the Environment, Yale University) B Benjamin Poulter

Abstract

Saline and freshwater wetlands store large amounts of carbon, which has driven interest in their role as nature-based climate solutions. Because these ecosystems can be both sinks and sources of carbon to the atmosphere as environmental conditions and human influence change, the net climate mitigation potential of wetlands at regional to global scales remains uncertain. We used a data-driven approach to measure ground-based and airborne fluxes to upscale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes using satellite-based surface reflectances at 500-m resolution across a gradient of saline to freshwater wetlands in Southern Florida, USA. Daily time series of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from 2000 to 2024 integrated surface properties related to vegetation productivity, flooding, and disturbance, and captured 80% and 91% of the variability in annual fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 , respectively. Long-term (23-y) patterns in the fluxes of CH 4 , CO 2 , and their CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 eq) are represented as Global Warming Potential 100 (GWP100) and were shown to vary spatially with wetland management, revealing higher carbon uptake in mangroves susceptible to hurricane damage and coastal hydrology, and greater carbon emissions in freshwater sawgrass marshes where freshwater hydrology is managed for restoration. Regional net annual CO 2 eq uptake in coastal and freshwater wetlands increased by 18% from −7.0 ± 3.3 MMT CO 2 eq y −1 in ~2003 to −8.4 ± 3.8 MMT CO 2 eq y −1 in ~2020 at an uptake rate of −0.06 ± 0.01 MMT CO 2 eq y −2 . Annually, roughly 43% of CO 2 uptake was offset by CH 4 emissions from all wetlands in the region (from 16% in mangroves to 82% in freshwater marshes).

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 123, Issue 8
Published February 24, 2026
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (31)

C

Cheryl L. Doughty

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

Q

Qing Ying

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

E

Eric Ward

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

E

Erin Delaria

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

G

Glenn M. Wolfe

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

S

Sparkle L. Malone

Yale School of the Environment, Yale University

D

David E. Reed

Yale School of the Environment, Yale University

T

Tiffany Troxler

Institute of Environment, Florida International University

J

John S. Kominoski

Institute of Environment, Florida International University

E

Edward Castañeda-Moya

Institute of Environment, Florida International University

W

W. Barclay Shoemaker

United States Geological Survey Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center

D

David Yannick

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama

G

Gregory Starr

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama

S

Steven F. Oberbauer

Institute of Environment, Florida International University

A

Abigail Barenblitt

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

A

Anthony Campbell

Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

S

Sean Charles

Integrated Coastal Program, East Carolina University

L

Lola Fatoyinbo

Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

J

Jonathan Gewirtzman

T

Thomas Hanisco

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

R

Reem Hannun

Atmospheric Science Branch, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center

S

Stephan Kawa

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

D

David Lagomasino

Integrated Coastal Program, East Carolina University

L

Leslie Lait

Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

A

Ayia Lindquist

Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

P

Paul Newman

Earth Sciences Division, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center

P

Peter Raymond

Yale School of the Environment, Yale University

J

Judith Rosentreter

Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University

K

Kenneth Thornhill

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center

D

Derrick Vaughn

Yale School of the Environment, Yale University

B

Benjamin Poulter