Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness
Abstract
In locations that do not currently experience vector-borne disease (VBD) outbreaks but may be at risk under climate change, modeling future climate suitability for transmission is important for outbreak preparedness. Uncertainty in the future climate arises from three sources—differences in emissions scenarios, structural uncertainty across climate models, and internal climate variability (ICV)—but ICV is rarely considered in climate-VBD studies. Here, we demonstrate that ICV is a key source of uncertainty in climate suitability for VBD transmission, even decades into the future. Because of ICV, suitable climate conditions for transmission may arise in many locations sooner than expected under climate change alone.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (6)
William S. Hart
Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences Division, University of Oxford
James W. Hurrell
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
Alexander R. Kaye
Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine, University of Warwick
Meera Chand
UK Health Security Agency, Canary Wharf
Matt J. Keeling
Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine, University of Warwick
Robin N. Thompson
Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences Division, University of Oxford