Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics
Abstract
Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical–economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize −24%; soybean −16%) and lower farmers’ profitability (maize −16%; soybean −2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (−12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (−6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (19)
Mengqi Jia
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Bin Peng
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Kaiyu Guan
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
David M. Lawrence
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, The U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Evan H. DeLucia
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Alan K. Knapp
Greg A. Barron-Gafford
School of Geography, Development & Environment, University of Arizona
Madhu Khanna
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Danica L. Lombardozzi
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, The U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
Matthew A. Sturchio
Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University
Steven A. Kannenberg
Department of Biology, West Virginia University
Lei Zhao
School of Life Sciences, Key Laboratory of Pesticide and Chemical Biology of Ministry of Education, and Hubei Key Laboratory of Genetic Regulation and Integrative Biology, Central China Normal University
James McCall
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Jinyun Tang
Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Carl J. Bernacchi
Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Paul Mwebaze
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Fahd Majeed
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
DoKyoung Lee
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Alson Time
Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign