Channelized topography amplifies melt-sensitivity of cold Antarctic ice shelves

Abstract

Abstract The stability of Antarctic ice shelves, which regulate the flow of grounded ice into the ocean, depends critically on ocean-driven basal melting. Basal channels, widespread features beneath many ice shelves, modulate ice-shelf basal melt rates and influence ice-shelf stability, yet their oceanic drivers remain poorly understood. Using high-resolution simulations of a cold-water ice shelf cavity, we show that interactions between circulation and channelized topography generate localized overturning that traps intruding warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) beneath the ice, amplifying melt rates by an order of magnitude within channels. This ocean-driven process significantly enhances the sensitivity of the ice shelf basal mass loss to ocean warming, and the resulting differential melting promotes channel growth, with the potential to undermine the structural stability of the deeper part of the ice shelf. Our results reveal a key mechanism for basal channel evolution and indicate that even modest CDW intrusions could have important implications for the stability of cold Antarctic ice shelves.