Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
Abstract
Abstract Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.
Article Details
Authors (82)
Viktoriia Radchuk
Carys V. Jones
Nina McLean
Anne Charmantier
Céline Teplitsky
Ray Alisauskas
Sergio Ancona
Tycho Anker-Nilssen
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Peter Arcese
Debora Arlt
Lise M. Aubry
Liam Bailey
Christophe Barbraud
Karl S. Berg
Dominique Berteaux
Department of Biology, Chemistry and Geography, Université du Québec à Rimouski
Daniel T. Blumstein
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California
Sandra Bouwhuis
Ulrich Brose
Lyanne Brouwer
Paulo Catry
Guillaume Chero
Andre Chiaradia
Alexandre Courtiol
Francis Daunt
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate
Karine Delord
F. Stephen Dobson
Hugh Drummond
Tapio Eeva
Dominique Fauteux
Gilles Gauthier
Meritxell Genovart
Department of Ecology and Complexity
José P. Granadeiro
Jonas Hentati-Sundberg
Michael Harris
José Manuel Igual
Fredric Janzen
Katharine Keogan
Erkki Korpimäki
Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
Loeske E. B. Kruuk
Institute of Ecology and Evolution
Sue Lewis
Mark Mallory
Julien Martin
Manuel Massot
Erik Matthysen
Jean-Baptiste Mihoub
Anders Pape Møller
Chloé R. Nater
Mark Newell
Steffen Oppel
Daniel Oro
Department of Ecology and Complexity
Santiago Ortega
Deseada Parejo
Tomas Pärt
Ana Payo-Payo
Josephine Pemberton
Richard A. Phillips
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council
Neville Pillay
Jesús M. Avilés
Heiko G. Rödel
Ana Sanz-Aguilar
Claire Saraux
Holger Schielzeth
Carsten Schradin
Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien, CNRS, Department of Ethology and Evolutionary Physiology, University of Strasbourg
Julia Schroeder
Ben C. Sheldon
Giacomo Tavecchia
Corey E. Tarwater
Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming
Vebjørn Veiberg
Vincent A. Viblanc
Dietrich von Holst
Stefan J. G. Vriend
Sarah Wanless
Nathaniel Wheelwright
Andrew G. Wood
Bernt-Erik Sæther
Stephanie Jenouvrier
Jean Clobert
Steven R. Beissinger
Marcel E. Visser
Thomas E. Reed
Martijn van de Pol