Can evolutionary therapy be applied in non-small cell lung cancer?

Abstract

Abstract Evolutionary therapy (ET) applies principles of evolutionary biology to steer tumour dynamics and forestall or delay treatment resistance, typically guided by data-driven mathematical models. Our aim is to assess whether ET protocols, and specifically Zhang et al.’s protocol proposed for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer, can be theoretically effective for fast-growing metastatic cancers such as stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Using longitudinal tumour-burden data from NSCLC patients treated with erlotinib, we systematically evaluate 26 two-population differential-equation models based on classical tumour-growth dynamics, with varying assumptions about density- and frequency-dependent interactions, pharmacokinetics, and treatment-induced death. Previous work by Yin et al. on the same dataset employed an exponential model that omitted density- and frequency-dependent interactions; although it provided a good fit to tumour-burden data, its structure would theoretically lead to poorer outcomes under ET protocols. In contrast, our analysis identifies the minimal model structure required to reproduce the resistance-driven regrowth observed in NSCLC, with the Gompertzian model featuring log-kill dynamics and both density- and frequency-dependent interactions providing the best fit. In this model, Zhang et al.’s protocol prolonged median time-to-progression to 42.3 months compared with 24.8 months under maximum tolerated dose. These results indicate that ET is theoretically a viable treatment strategy for NSCLC. This study offers a practical framework for assessing ET feasibility using clinical data and supports future clinical translation of ET in NSCLC.