Burkitt lymphoma incidence in relation to HIV prevalence in United States: A regression analysis.

Abstract

e19069 Background: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a rare and aggressive malignancy that is hypothesized to have a potential association with HIV due to the immunosuppressed state induced by the virus. This study evaluates the relationship between HIV prevalence and BL incidence in United States using publicly available datasets to assess whether HIV prevalence significantly predicts BL incidence rates. Methods: We conducted a linear regression analysis using data on HIV prevalence and BL incidence from global burden of disease datasets. The model examined the association between HIV prevalence (independent variable) and BL incidence (dependent variable) across the United States. The regression included 62 observations, with HIV prevalence as a continuous predictor. Model fit was assessed using R2R^2R2, and statistical significance was evaluated at a threshold of p<0.05. Results: The linear regression model showed no significant association between HIV prevalence and BL incidence (β=−0.0034, p=0.685). The intercept β0=2.927 suggested an average BL incidence of 2.93 cases per 100,000 when HIV prevalence is 0%. The model's R2R^2R2 was 0.0027, indicating that HIV prevalence explained only 0.27% of the variance in BL incidence. The residual standard error was 1.844, and the overall model was not significant (F=0.166, p=0.6851). Conclusions: In this analysis, no significant relationship was observed between HIV prevalence and Burkitt lymphoma incidence in the United States. These findings suggest that other factors, such as Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) prevalence, age distribution, or regional socioeconomic conditions, may play a more critical role in determining BL incidence in this region. Further research is needed to explore these factors and assess potential non-linear or regional variations in the relationship between HIV and BL. Expanding the dataset and incorporating additional predictors may improve the understanding of BL’s etiology in HIV-endemic regions.