Burden of subarachnoid hemorrhage in Asia and ARIMA model prediction trends from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

Abstract Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a rare but serious stroke subtype that accounts for approximately 5% of all strokes. This study analyzed SAH epidemiology in Asia from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. This study assessed the burden of SAH in Asia using four indicators: incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to conduct a long-term trend analysis and forecast the changing trends of various indicators from 2022 to 2041. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of SAH in Asia increased and then decreased, while the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) of SAH continued to decline. The Arima model predictions suggest that Asian age-standardized rates will typically show a decreasing trend over the next 20 years, except for the ASIR, which shows an increasing trend. Over the next 20 years, the ASIR of SAH in Asia is expected to increase. The ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were expected to show decreasing trends. The burden of SAH in older patients remains high, highlighting the need to strengthen the health management of the older population.