Banning new gas boilers as a no-regret mitigation option

Abstract

Abstract The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing this ban in France under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. We find that the ban induces major changes in the energy system, leading to efficiency gains. Additionally, we find that the ban increases the likelihood of reaching carbon neutrality while reducing total system cost in over 75% of scenarios. Finally, we show that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy framework, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generates adverse effects for those in privately rented homes.