Association of deep learning CT response assessment and interpretable components with overall survival in advanced NSCLC: Validation in a trial of sasanlimab and a real-world dataset.

Abstract

1559 Background: Identifying advanced non–small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients who derive long-term benefit from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) remains a significant challenge. Radiomic analyses, particularly leveraging deep learning, hold promise for improving prognostic accuracy beyond tumor size metrics. We developed serialCTRS, a novel biomarker using deep learning to quantify thoracic CT changes from baseline to 3 months post-treatment, predicting overall survival (OS) in patients receiving PD-(L)1 inhibitors. Methods: SerialCTRS was previously trained and validated on a multi-institutional Real-World Dataset (RWD) (training: 1,171 aNSCLC patients, 14,424 CT scans; validation: 612 patients; Sako et al. SITC, 2024). For this study, we retrospectively validated serialCTRS in two distinct cohorts of aNSCLC patients: (1) a clinical trial (N = 52) treated with the PD-1 inhibitor sasanlimab in the second or later line and (2) a fully blinded RWD from Baylor Scott & White Health system (N = 147), an institution not used for training. The pipeline—spanning image quality control, preprocessing, feature extraction, and survival modeling—operated without manual annotations. To enhance interpretability, we developed 3D submodels for prognostic signals related to (i) tumor burden, (ii) body composition, and (iii) lung vasculature. Predictive performance was compared to RECIST 1.1 using concordance index (c-index) and ROC-AUC for 24-month OS (OS24 AUC). Results: SerialCTRS outperformed RECIST in OS prediction and remained a significant predictor after multivariate adjustments with other known predictors including age, sex, PD-L1 TPS, and NLR across both validation cohorts. In the sasanlimab cohort, serialCTRS achieved a c-index of 0.77, surpassing RECIST (0.72), with an OS24 AUC of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74–0.98). In the Baylor cohort, serialCTRS demonstrated a c-index of 0.68 vs. RECIST (0.62) and an OS24 AUC of 0.76 (0.67–0.86). Submodels targeting individual components achieved c-indices of 0.65 (tumor burden), 0.61 (body composition), and 0.61 (vasculature) in the sasanlimab cohort, and 0.63, 0.61, and 0.59, respectively, in the Baylor cohort. Combining the submodels improved c-indices to 0.69 (sasanlimab) and 0.66 (Baylor), demonstrating complementary signal among radiographic features. Conclusions: SerialCTRS outperformed RECIST 1.1 in predicting OS in independent clinical trial and RWD datasets. Interpretable submodels highlighted the prognostic value of tumor burden, body composition, and vasculature changes. SerialCTRS offers a promising tool for personalizing therapy and accelerating drug development in aNSCLC, with a fully automated pipeline for robust and scalable clinical use. Future work will focus on larger, more diverse cohorts to validate utility in guiding precision oncology.