Assimilation of high-resolution Ocean Color Monitor (OCM) aerosol optical depth in WRF-Chem improves PM₂.₅ forecasts over the Indian region

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the impact of assimilating high resolution (770 m) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval derived from the Oceansat-3 Ocean Colour Monitor (OCM) sensor into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for the first time, aiming to improve fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) forecasts over India. AOD assimilation, evaluated over the period 01–15 November 2023, leads to substantial improvements in model accuracy, reducing PM₂.₅ biases by 30–70% and lowering root mean square error (RMSE) across critical regions such as Delhi, Punjab, Bihar, and West Bengal. The assimilation substantially improves initial conditions of surface PM₂.₅ estimates by approximately 60 µg/m³. Forecast accuracy is the highest on the first day, with an RMSE of 21.35 µg/m³ and a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.75, followed by increasing RMSE values of 30.40 µg/m³ on Day 2 and 32 µg/m³ on Day 3, with correlations of 0.73 and 0.70, respectively, reflecting degradation of assimilation benefits by model uncertainties over time. With MODIS nearing phase-out, high-resolutionOCM AOD retrievals offer a reliable alternate choice for future AOD assimilation in the AIRWISE forecasting system over India.