ARIMA prediction model for mortality caused by metastatic cancers in the United States population up to the year 2050: A CDC WONDER Database analysis.

Abstract

11157 Background: Metastatic cancers are the leading cause of mortality in the United States (US). In this study of death certificates, obtained from data registry spanning from 1999 to 2024, we examined mortality trends among individuals suffering from any metastatic cancer in US. Methods: Our aim was to analyze the trends in mortality among US residents by demographic characteristics and predict future years based on the existing data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting modeling. The national mortality data from the multiple causes of death files in the CDC WONDER Database were queried by applying the ICD-10 codes as C77-C79 for secondary cancers. Trends in age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) were assessed and results were expressed as average annual percentage changes (AAPC) from Join point regression. Results: There were a total of 2,098,842 deaths due to metastatic cancers in US from 1999-2024 with a crude mortality rate of 25.97 per 100,000 population, about 52% of them being males and 48% were females. Mortality rates (AAMR) continue to trend down from 1999-2008 in both gender, but showed an increase from 2009 onwards with females showed significant AAPC of +0.44. ARIMA predictive model exhibits a significant decline of mortality rates up to the year 2050 in Black population (AAMR: 24.45), Northeast region (AAMR: 10.84) and metropolitan areas (AAMR: 19.93). Conclusions: These findings provide valuable insights of mortality patterns among US population with metastatic malignant diseases. Certain subgroups with specific demographic and geographic characteristics such as White Population, non-metropolitan areas and those belonged to West region had higher future prediction of AAMR. ARIMA forecasting model for predicting AAMR in metastatic cancer population in U.S. Variables AAMR in 1999 Lowest AAMR (year) AAMR in 2024 AAPC ARIMA forecast (2050) Total 27.65 18.34(2008) 29.13 +0.30(0.20 – 0.40)* 29.90 Gender Female 23.89 15.73(2008) 26.23 +0.44(0.34 – 0.54)* 26.04 Male 33.48 22.03(2008) 33.19 +0.06(-0.32 – 0.44) 32.31 Race White 27.74 18.70(2008) 30.89 +0.51(0.40 – 0.63)* 32.95 Black 35.32 21.30(2014) 30.67 -0.54(-1.43 – 0.36) 24.45 Hispanic 19.07 12.93(2008) 21.68 +0.42(0.30 – 0.55)* 24.68 Asian or Pacific Islander 16.32 11.60(2008) 19.37 +0.54(0.25 – 0.89)* 23.15 American Natives 20.35 15.19(2005) 21.68 +0.33(-0.15 – 1.15) 24.28 Census Region Northeast 27.29 15.62(2014) 20.53 -1.03(-1.57 – -0.49)* 10.84 Midwest 29.51 18.55(2010) 31.96 +0.35(0.21 – 0.47)* 30.74 South 28.23 19.18(2008) 30.77 +0.43(0.31 – 0.56)* 33.30 West 24.81 17.18(2008) 30.72 +0.97(0.77 – 1.19)* 39.18 Urbanization † Metropolitan 27.17 17.76(2008) 24.66 -0.46(-0.60 – -0.33)* 19.93 Non-metropolitan 29.87 20.73(2010) 30.39 +0.02(-0.75 – 0.80) 26.56 AAMR per 100,000 population. † For urbanization, AAMR 1999-2020. *P-value <0.05.