An ensemble deep learning framework for energy demand forecasting using genetic algorithm-based feature selection

Abstract

Accurate energy demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and planning. Recent advancements in computing power and the availability of large datasets have fueled the development of machine learning models. However, selecting the most appropriate features to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness remains a key challenge. This study proposes an ensemble approach that integrates a genetic algorithm with multiple forecasting models to optimize feature selection. The genetic algorithm identifies the optimal subset of features from a dataset that includes historical energy consumption, weather variables, and temporal characteristics. These selected features are then used to train three base learners: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The predictions from these models are combined using a stacking ensemble technique to generate the final forecast. To enhance model evaluation, we divided the dataset into weekday and weekend subsets, allowing for a more detailed analysis of energy consumption patterns. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we conducted ten simulations and applied the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test to the results. The proposed model demonstrated exceptional precision, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 130.6, a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.38%, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 99.41 for weekday data. The model also maintained high accuracy for weekend predictions, with an RMSE of 137.41, a MAPE of 0.42%, and an MAE of 105.67. This research provides valuable insights for energy analysts and contributes to developing more sophisticated demand forecasting methods.