An AI-driven fire risk forecasting framework for urban villages using IGWO-optimized LSTM with incremental learning

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping decision-support systems across multiple domains, including risk management and urban safety. Urban villages, characterized by high population density and informal infrastructure, are particularly vulnerable to fire hazards. This study presents an AI-driven fire risk forecasting framework based on an Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, further enhanced by an incremental learning strategy. IGWO improves hyperparameter convergence and avoids local optima, while the incremental component allows real-time model updates without full retraining. Using real fire incident data from 55 urban villages in Beijing, the proposed IGWO-LSTM-IL model achieves a 92.57% reduction in mean squared error compared to baseline LSTM. The model demonstrates high predictive accuracy, stability, and adaptability, making it a practical tool for intelligent fire risk monitoring and urban safety systems within the scope of AI-transforming urban infrastructure.