Aging and global cancer burden: A population-based comparative situation analysis and predictions from GLOBOCAN and UN databases.

Abstract

e23253 Background: As the global population ages, the incidence and impact of cancer among the elderly have become critical areas of study. This demographic shift is expected to continue, necessitating detailed analysis for effective planning and resource allocation in cancer control and prevention. This research aims to predict the rise in cancer rates among older adults across various UN regions from 1970 to 2050, aiming to highlight the significant challenges posed by cancer within this demographic. Methods: Data on cancer IR and MR were sourced from the Globocon, of both current statistics and projections up to 2050. Additionally, world population figures were obtained from United Nations population estimates to analyze demographic shifts between younger and older populations. A longitudinal approach was employed to calculate and compare trends in cancer burden among the elderly compared to the young across various regions and Human Development Index (HDI) categories as defined by the UN. With the predictive modelling, we calculated the quantitative cancer statistics, including rate ratios and case fatality rates per 100,000 (CFR), and compared incidence (IR) and mortality rates (MR) per 100,000 alongside demographic and socioeconomic data to assess disparities and temporal trends. Results: Cancer incidence and mortality rates are markedly higher in the elderly across UN regions. In Africa, the IR for the elderly was 748.59, compared to 59.41 for the young, while MR was 582.82 for the elderly vs 34.54 for the young. In Northern America, the elderly IR was 2623.83, with mortality at 800.70, compared to 308.35 and 58.55 for the young, respectively. Prostate cancer incidence among elderly men was significant, while breast cancer is predominant in elderly women. By 2050, Northern America's elderly IR is projected to rise to 2905.74 per 100,000, with MR increasing to 961.07. Latin America anticipates a rise in elderly IR from 1257.84 to 1313.00 per 100,000 and MR from 732.15 to 782.65. Conclusions: The analysis indicates significant demographic shifts, with the elderly population projected to markedly increase across all UN regions from 1970 to 2050, highlighting the urgent need for targeted healthcare strategies to address the rising cancer burden, particularly in higher HDI regions. By analyzing the interplay between demographic shifts, socioeconomic factors, and cancer trends, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and healthcare providers, advocating for proactive planning and resource allocation to effectively tackle the anticipated rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly. Predicted changes in cancer IR, MR, and CFR among the elderly by region (2022-2050). Region CFR Elderly 2022 CFR Elderly 2050 Change in MR Change in MR w.r.t IR Africa 0.77 0.78 14.06 1.41 Asia 0.68 0.72 79.37 1.25 Latin America and the Caribbean 0.58 0.59 50.50 0.91