Age-stratified prognostic performance of hematologic inflammatory indices for 30-day mortality in emergency department patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19: A cohort study from the pre-vaccination pandemic era

Abstract

Background During the pandemic era, rapid and accessible prognostic tools were essential to support clinical decision-making for emergency department (ED) patients presenting with acute infectious symptoms. Hematologic inflammatory indices derived from complete blood count (CBC) parameters, such as the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), and pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV), have been increasingly investigated for risk stratification. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the age-stratified prognostic performance of these indices for 30-day mortality in ED patients during the pandemic period. Methods This retrospective cohort study included adults presenting to a tertiary-care ED between March 1 and May 31, 2020. All included patients were retrospectively confirmed to have SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR. CBC-derived inflammatory markers (SII, SIRI, and PIV) were calculated at admission. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality; the secondary outcome was ICU admission. Age-stratified analyses (<65 and ≥65 years) were performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, area under the curve (AUC) values, optimal cut-offs, and negative predictive values (NPVs) were determined; logistic regression models assessed independent associations with mortality. Results A total of 2,778 PCR-confirmed patients were included (mean age 47.8 ± 16.2; 58.7% male). Thirty-day mortality was 6.2%. In the overall cohort, SII, SIRI, and PIV demonstrated modest prognostic performance for mortality (AUCs: 0.663, 0.659, and 0.649, respectively). In patients <65 years, performance improved particularly for SII (AUC 0.727), with SIRI and PIV yielding AUCs of 0.676 and 0.677, respectively. Among patients ≥65 years, discrimination was lower (SII: 0.570; SIRI: 0.604; PIV: 0.588). Formal DeLong testing confirmed statistically significant age-related attenuation for SII (ΔAUC = 0.159; P = 0.0055), with non-significant trends for SIRI and PIV. As an exploratory secondary outcome, direct ED-to-ICU admission occurred in 2.9% of patients; this endpoint primarily reflects the institutional pandemic-era pathway of low-threshold ward admission with subsequent ICU escalation upon clinical deterioration. All indices demonstrated high negative predictive values, particularly in younger patients, indicating potential utility for identifying lower-risk individuals during high-volume pandemic ED operations. Conclusions Hematologic inflammatory indices obtained at ED presentation demonstrated age-dependent prognostic performance for 30-day mortality, with SII showing good discrimination and high negative predictive value (98.9%) in patients younger than 65 years and reduced discriminatory performance in elderly patients. These readily available and cost-effective parameters may support rule-out decisions for younger adults in emergency settings, while in elderly patients clinical assessment and comorbidity profiling should be prioritized over inflammatory marker interpretation.