Africa’s booming rice cultivation is fueling regional warming

Abstract

Abstract The significant increase of surface air temperature in Africa during the recent industrial period has been previously attributed to emissions from rapidly growing urbanization and industrial emissions. This study highlights the rapid growth of rice cultivation as another major influencing factor. We estimate that a 436% (14 million hectares) surge in rice cultivation area during the industrial period (1960-2018) in the sub-Saharan African region is associated with an increase of 603 million tons of agricultural methane emissions, making it the largest source of methane among all sectoral contributors, including energy, industrial processes, waste, land-use change, and forestry. These changes are further associated with an increase in the total surface air temperature anomaly to 1.3 $$^\circ$$ C, with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing alone accounting for a rise from 0.47 $$^\circ$$ C to 0.92 $$^\circ$$ C throughout the industrial era compared to pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900), as estimated using the Regular Optimal Fingerprinting (ROF) method. Continued rice cultivation expansion to feed Africa’s rapidly growing population holds the potential for further intensifying current and future warming conditions. However, adopting more sustainable rice farming practices can help to reduce emissions and mitigate these effects.