African inland wetland area on the rise during the 21st century

Abstract

Abstract Wetlands face threats from climate change and human activities worldwide, yet the status of African wetlands remains unknown. This study mapped African wetlands and assessed area loss, drivers, and future trends under climate change using 270,000 sampling points, 810,000 Landsat images, and soil moisture data from 14 CMIP6 models. The results reveal no large-scale loss of wetlands in Africa from 1984 to 2021 (0.51% net loss), with the loss concentrated in coastal areas (9.64% net loss), while inland wetlands show a slight increase in area (0.50% net increase). A comparison of the time series of wetland area and related drivers showed that the change of inland wetland area is closely related to climate change, and human activities have exacerbated the loss of coastal wetlands. TOPMODEL projections suggest an upward trend in inland wetland area by 2100, but uncertainty persists and inland wetlands remain at risk of loss in the future.