Accelerating national burden of pancreatic cancer in the United States: Contemporary real-world trends, demographic disparities, and exploratory ARIMA projections from a federated electronic health record network.

Abstract

e16469 Background: Pancreatic cancer remains among the most lethal malignancies worldwide, with limited improvement in survival despite therapeutic advances. Contemporary real-world data characterizing recent diagnosis acceleration, demographic disparities, and future burden remain limited. We evaluated national trends in pancreatic cancer burden using a large federated electronic health record (EHR) network. Methods: We conducted a retrospective multicenter real-world cohort analysis using the TriNetX Research Network. Adult patients (≥18 years) with pancreatic cancer were identified using ICD-10-CM code C25. Annual newly recorded diagnosis proportions, prevalence, and incidence rates were calculated for calendar years 2020–2024 and stratified by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. New diagnoses were defined as first recorded pancreatic cancer encounters within each calendar year. Exploratory future burden projections were generated through 2028 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series modeling. Results: Between 2020 and 2024, newly recorded pancreatic cancer diagnoses increased from 0.032% (21,118 cases) to 0.046% (23,660 cases), representing a descriptive relative increase exceeding 40%. Prevalence increased from 0.101% (65,971 cases) to 0.145% (74,139 cases), reflecting rapid expansion of disease burden. Diagnosis burden increased markedly with advancing age, with the highest burden observed among individuals aged ≥65 years. Males consistently demonstrated higher diagnosis proportions compared with females. Racial stratification demonstrated higher recorded diagnosis proportions among White and Asian populations, while substantial prevalence burden persisted across all racial groups, potentially reflecting differences in healthcare utilization and access. Non-Hispanic individuals exhibited higher diagnosis and prevalence proportions compared with Hispanic individuals. Exploratory ARIMA forecasting projected continued growth in pancreatic cancer burden through 2028, with widening uncertainty intervals over time, indicating escalating long-term healthcare demand. Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer burden in the United States is rapidly increasing, with disproportionate impact among older adults and males and persistent demographic disparities. Exploratory projection modeling suggests continued expansion of disease burden in the near term. These findings highlight the urgent need for earlier detection initiatives, risk-adapted screening strategies, and healthcare system preparedness to address the growing national impact of pancreatic cancer.