Abstract 4366797: Use of an Administratively Derived Elder Risk Assessment Score and Long Term Mortality in Older Adults Undergoing Aortic Valve Replacement

Abstract

Background: Older adults with severe aortic stenosis (AS) are at high risk of mortality unless treated by aortic valve replacement (AVR). The Society of Thoracic Surgery (STS) score is primarily used clinically to determine mortality risk from surgical AVR. Due to geriatric comorbidities unique to older adults, traditional methods of risk stratification with STS may have significant shortcomings. Administratively derived risk scores that have prognostic significance in the geriatric population may prove valuable. Methods: We reviewed patients at our hospital system with AS undergoing AVR (surgical and transcatheter) and administratively derived an Elder Risk Assessment (ERA) score from the health record. The ERA score is a composite of age, marital status, number of hospitalized days in previous 2 years, and comorbidities (diabetes, coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure, stroke, pulmonary disease, cancer, and dementia). Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival by ERA score tertile. Cox regression was used to determine association between ERA and survival after accounting for STS predicted risk. Results: There were a total of 228 patients that underwent AVR (TAVR: 59 (26.1 %); SAVR 167 (73.9%) and had ERA scores derived. The average age was 79.6 (SD 7.6) years) and there were 93 (40.8%) women. Patients were stratified by ERA score tertiles: low (≤6), mid (6-13), or high (≥14). Over a mean follow up of 5.8 (SD 3.1) years, lower ERA scores were associated with better long-term survival (p<0.001). After accounting for age, sex, and STS score, mid ERA (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.00-2.59; p<0.001) and high (HR 2.90; 95% CI 1.79-4.69; p<0.001) were associated with mortality (reference: low ERA). For every 10-point increase in the ERA, there was a 2-fold increase in adjusted mortality risk (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.58-2.90; p<0.001). Conclusions: Older adults undergoing AVR for severe AS have specific geriatric comorbidities that may be better characterized using the ERA score. This administratively derived score was independently associated with survival after accounting for the widely used STS risk score.