A scoring system for epstein-barr reativation after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Abstract

Abstract Objective: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is an effective treatment for hematological malignancies. Epstein-Barr（EBV）reactivation is a common complication after allo-HSCT, which may lead to serious diseases with a high mortality. Therefore, we aim to develop a scoring system for EBV reactivation after HSCT to identify high-risk groups. Methods: We enrolled 1013 patients who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in our center between September 2020 and December 2022, divided them into derivation and validation cohorts based on the time of transplantation. and developed a scoring system for EBV reactivation after allo-HSCT. Results: Through univariate analysis we preliminarily screened out several variables: donor age, donor gender, graft MNC count, CD8 cell count, NK cell count, and CMV reactivation. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, donor age, donor gender and CMV reactivation(P＜0.01) were included in the final prediction scoring system. By generating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating the C-statistic, the model showed good calibration in both validation cohorts. the C statistics was 0.67 in the derivation cohort and 0.60 in the validation cohort.Conclusion: Ultimately, we developed a scoring model for EBV reactivation after allo-HSCT and validated accuracy to identify high-risk groups more effectively.