A predictive model to assess the risk of developing hyperlipidemia in patients with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasingly recognized as a significant global health challenge, with a rising prevalence of hyperlipidemia among diabetic patients. Effectively predicting and reducing the risk of hyperlipidemia in T2D patients to mitigate their cardiovascular risk remains an urgent issue. Objectives The research sought to determine early clinical indicators that could predict the onset of hyperlipidemia in patients with T2D and to establish a predictive model that integrates clinical and laboratory indicators. Methods A cohort of T2D patients, excluding those with pre-existing hyperlipidemia or confounding factors, was analyzed. Clinical and laboratory data were used in a LASSO regression model to select key predictive variables. A nomogram was then constructed and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and calibration. Results Among 269 participants, PCSK9 levels were significantly elevated in T2D patients with hyperlipidemia and exhibited a positive correlation with several lipid markers. LASSO regression identified six predictors: BMI, TG, TC, LDL-C, HbA1c, and PCSK9. The nomogram model exhibited robust predictive performance (AUC, 0.89 (95% CI: 0.802–0.977)) and showed good calibration. Conclusions This method effectively predicts the risk of hyperlipidemia in patients with T2D and provides a valuable tool for early intervention. PCSK9, as a key predictor, highlights its potential role in the pathogenesis of diabetes with hyperlipidemia and offers new avenues for targeted therapy.