A health and economic evaluation of the spatial spillover effect from measles resurgence

Abstract

Abstract The administration of the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccination has had a substantial impact on controlling the spread of measles on a global scale. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to normal immunization schedules, causing the omission or delay of routine immunizations. Expanding on previous research that simulated measles outbreaks using a detailed agent-based model, this study integrates epidemiological forecasts with spatial econometrics analysis. Our objective is to quantify the household-level direct and indirect health and economic impact of measles outbreaks caused by reduction in MMR vaccine uptake. A network-based SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model is used to simulate the transmission of measles over a synthetic social contact network of Virginia, under various scenarios. Household-level costs of measles outbreak, encompassing MMR vaccine expenses, treatment costs, and productivity losses, are estimated from the simulation results. A Generalized Spatial Autoregressive (GSAR) model is used to estimate the spatial ‘spillover effect’ on neighboring counties. Our findings indicate that reduced MMR vaccination rates are associated with increased measles cases and related economic costs, which are intensified by disease transmissibility and moderated by home quarantine. The GSAR model, with spatial lag coefficients, shows significant spatial interdependencies. A small decrease in vaccination rate in an urban region like Richmond, Virginia, has significant economic and epidemiological spillover effect, while similar reductions in rural regions like Highland County, Virginia, have a negligible impact. A decline in MMR vaccination rate has ramifications for both disease incidence and the economy, presenting diverse consequences influenced by regional disparities. Policymakers should acknowledge the interconnectedness of health and economic outcomes across regions. This research underscores the necessity of implementing broad, region-wide policy measures in response to fluctuations in vaccination rates, prioritizing overarching strategies over localized interventions.